Pitches, Bowling Tools and Back-ups β The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost
Just 48 hours remaining.
England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.
Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.
It's tough to make runs, right?
Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.
Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".
Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.
Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.
Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.
Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.
A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.
An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.
Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.
Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test match cricket is about problem solving.
When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.
Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.
Whatβs happening with the Australian pace attack?
On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.
Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.
Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.
Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.
The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.
On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.
Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.
Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.
The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.
On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.
In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected β The tourists should pay attention.
Tough at the top
Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?
Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.
Not anymore.
Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.
Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.
The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.
His average rises when the bowling gets faster.
In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.
Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.
Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.
It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.
Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.
In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.
Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.
Battle of Spin
For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger β spin.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.
Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.
It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.
During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.
Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.
Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?
It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.
Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.
Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.
Right place, right time?
The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.
Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.
In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.
England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.
On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.
Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca β scene of many an England humbling β but the shiny new Perth Stadium.
It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.
Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.
The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.
Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.
Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.
The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.
Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match β against India last year.
Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.
England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.
The issue in {day-night matches|
