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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.