Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.